ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDevelopingUpdated 3m ago

Democrats win the 2026 Special Election for Senate in Florida?

As of Oct 11, 2026, 7:25 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 10.4% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 50 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.

Market probability

10.4%

Little changed over 24 hours

Ends Nov 3, 2026 · 23 days

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price; the price has held steady over 24 hours.

Price historyManifold

Source: Manifold price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Moderate

Consensus stability

Stable

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

1K mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

50 mana

Total volume

7.8K mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

Participation data isn't captured for this market yet.

Participation data isn't captured for this market yet, so we can't say how many accounts set this price.

What this market actually measures

Resolves yes if democrats win. Angie Nixon for dems and Ashley moody for republicans

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolves yes if democrats win. Angie Nixon for dems and Ashley moody for republicans

What could move this market next?

The market's deadline arrivesNovember 3, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 11, 7:28 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±16 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

low classifier confidence

Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

Thin book and/or wide spread.

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability

Reliability score

18Low

Where the price path tends to go next1018 observed

Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~2w

PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data