Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
1.6K mana
Total volume
0 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Democrats win the Texas Commissioner of Agriculture Election?
As of Oct 11, 2026, 4:25 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 44.8% (up from 42.2% 24 hours earlier). It had 1.6K mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
44.8%
+2.6 percentage points
over 24 hours42.2% → 44.8%
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (3.8 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
53%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
8
Trades
28
over 125 days
Largest order
810 mana
1.5K mana traded across these 28 trades (last 125 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$1.5K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
2026 Texas Commissioner of Agriculture election - Wikipedia [link preview]
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
2026 Texas Commissioner of Agriculture election - Wikipedia [link preview]
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 3, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 11, 4:34 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±26 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
low classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
0Low
Where the price path tends to go next991 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~5h
PredictabilityHigh irreducibility
Secondary read: leaning toward Reacting to news.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
1.6K mana
Liquidity
1K mana
Total volume
0 mana
- Category
- Politics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 44.8%
- 7-day range
- 42.0% – 48.6%
- Resolves
- Nov 3, 2026
Change (pts)1H0.06H-3.824H+2.67D+2.6