Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-09-05?
A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread. The probability moved another 4 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
UnsettledThe probability moved another 4 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
In the upcoming game, scheduled for September 5, 2026 If FC Bayern München wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
In the upcoming game, scheduled for September 5, 2026 If FC Bayern München wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Resolution source: bundesliga.com
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 4.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (84.5% → 80.5%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The scheduled event takes placeSeptember 5, 2026 at 12:30 PM ET
The contract resolves on the event's outcome.
- Confirmation at the resolution source (bundesliga.com)
The rules name this source as the basis for settlement.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 5, 12:18 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: medium · expected error ±19 pts.
What's happening
A sustained one-directional drift. This can be a genuine trend or crowd herding; watch whether liquidity and breadth confirm the move.
- Directional drift sustained across 1h / 6h / 24h windows
- Executed flow buy-heavy (100%)
The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Trend continuation27%
- News repricing23%
- Thin-liquidity spike23%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Resolving soon.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
$161.5K
Liquidity
$414.6K
Total volume
$205.7K
- Category
- Macro / Fed
- Venue
- Polymarket
- Open interest
- —
- Spread
- 1.0 pts
- Best bid
- 80.0%
- Best ask
- 81.0%
- 7-day range
- 80.5% – 84.5%
- Resolves
- Sep 5, 2026
- Resolution
- bundesliga.com