🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 67.0%.
- Final market price
- 67.0%
- Event deadline
- September 16, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026? The final Manifold price was 67.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 67.0%.
- Market data as of
- September 19, 2026 at 12:29 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 18, 2026 at 7:32 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- September 16, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 29d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolve YES if the Federal Open Market Committee increases the target range for the federal funds rate at its September 15–16, 2026 meeting relative to the target range in effect immediately before the meeting. Resolve NO if the FOMC leaves the target range unchanged or lowers it.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolve YES if the Federal Open Market Committee increases the target range for the federal funds rate at its September 15–16, 2026 meeting relative to the target range in effect immediately before the meeting. Resolve NO if the FOMC leaves the target range unchanged or lowers it. Resolution will be based on the first official Federal Reserve monetary policy statement issued for the September 15–16, 2026 FOMC meeting. The size of the increase does not matter. Any increase in the target range counts as YES. Changes to forward guidance, the balance sheet, quantitative tightening, Treasury operations, or any other policy measure do not count unless the target range for the federal funds rate is also increased. If the September FOMC decision is delayed beyond the market’s scheduled closing time, the market will remain closed to trading but unresolved until the Federal Reserve publishes the official decision, at which point it will resolve based on that decision