Will a 2026 science Nobel motivation mention AI, machine learning, or neural networks?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 5.4%.
- Final market price
- 5.4%
- Event deadline
- October 7, 2026 at 6:23 AM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will a 2026 science Nobel motivation mention AI, machine learning, or neural networks? The final Manifold price was 5.4%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 5.4%.
- Market data as of
- October 10, 2026 at 6:59 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:41 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- October 7, 2026 at 6:23 AM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 11d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if the official prize motivation published on NobelPrize.org for the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine (announced 5 October), Physics (6 October), or Chemistry (7 October) contains any of these phrases, case-insensitive: "artificial intelligence" "machine learning" "neural network" (or "neural networks") "deep learning" Otherwise resolves NO. Source of truth: the motivation text — the citation t…
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if the official prize motivation published on NobelPrize.org for the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine (announced 5 October), Physics (6 October), or Chemistry (7 October) contains any of these phrases, case-insensitive: "artificial intelligence" "machine learning" "neural network" (or "neural networks") "deep learning" Otherwise resolves NO. Source of truth: the motivation text — the citation that begins "for ..." — exactly as it appears on nobelprize.org for each 2026 prize. Nothing else counts: not the press release body, not the popular-science or advanced scientific background documents, not the laureates' employers or affiliations, not the Peace/Literature/Economics prizes. Worked precedent. The 2024 Physics motivation was "for foundational discoveries and inventions that enable machine learning with artificial neural networks" — that would resolve this market YES. The 2024 Chemistry motivations were "for computational protein design" and "for protein structure prediction" — AI-driven work, but those words are absent, so on their own they would resolve NO. The question is about the committee's language, not the committee's taste. If a category is not awarded in 2026, it simply cannot contribute a YES. Resolution will cite the nobelprize.org URL for each announcement.