Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
97.9 mana
Total volume
530.9 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will I get a 1560+ on the November SAT?
As of Oct 26, 2026, 9:33 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 22.1% (down from 32.6% 24 hours earlier). It had 97.9 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
22.1%
−10.5 percentage points
over 24 hours32.6% → 22.1%
Moving fastBig move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — and today's move was spread across many accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (3.9 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
Broad participation
20%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
23
Trades
44
over 52 days
Largest order
76 mana
504.2 mana traded across these 44 trades (last 52 days).
Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one trader.
Recent trade activity$504.2 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
School average is above a 1500 Junior Have not studied yet, but attend a specialized (stem-oriented) school. Will be rigorously studying (procrastinator-style lmao) for all of next week.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
School average is above a 1500 Junior Have not studied yet, but attend a specialized (stem-oriented) school. Will be rigorously studying (procrastinator-style lmao) for all of next week. So far have taken one (1) diagnostic practice test (Bluebook 4), yielding 800/660 (reading/math). edit: my best friend had a brain stroke and my life is a dumpster fire right now so ill be taking the november SAT instead
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 10.5 percentage points over the last 24 hours (32.6% → 22.1%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 20, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 26, 9:44 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±27 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
low classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
1Low
Where the price path tends to go next541 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~10h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Reacting to news.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H-3.924H-10.57D-10.5
Related markets
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
0%YESTrust 84
Polymarket$212.9K 24h
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?
1%YESTrust 56
Kalshi$27.4 24h
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?
1%YESTrust 58
Kalshi$168.8 24h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
94%YESTrust 93
Polymarket$2.3M 24h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
0%YESTrust 93
Polymarket$504.4K 24h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
6%YESTrust 88
Polymarket$958.2K 24h