As of Oct 20, 2026, 1:54 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 3.7% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 100 mana of pool liquidity.
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — the venue's feed doesn't report liquidity for this market, traded by a small group of accounts.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
0 mana
Total volume
831.2 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
23
Trades
69
over 32 days
Largest order
250 mana
1.3K mana traded across these 69 trades (last 32 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
The Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness problem is one of the seven Clay Millennium Prize Problems, and as of 2026, the only Millennium Prize problem to have been solved is the Poincaré conjecture. This market asks whether Anthropic will publicly claim that one of its AI systems has resolved it.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
The Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness problem is one of the seven Clay Millennium Prize Problems, and as of 2026, the only Millennium Prize problem to have been solved is the Poincaré conjecture. This market asks whether Anthropic will publicly claim that one of its AI systems has resolved it. Resolves YES if: before 11:59 PM ET December 31, 2026, Anthropic publicly announces — or a preprint with Anthropic-affiliated authors or Anthropic’s official endorsement presents — a claimed complete resolution of the Clay Mathematics Institute’s Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness problem, with Claude or another Anthropic AI system credited as the primary source of the proof. Terms: • Either direction counts. A claimed proof of global existence and smoothness, OR a claimed counterexample (finite-time blow-up from smooth, finite-energy initial data), in either the R³ or periodic setting as specified in Clay’s official problem statement. Both resolve the Millennium problem and both count. • Must be a claim of full resolution. Partial or conditional progress does NOT count: blow-up for modified, hyperdissipative, or averaged Navier–Stokes; Euler blow-up; results under additional assumptions; “substantial progress toward”; or numerical evidence without a claimed proof. • AI as primary prover. Claude must be credited as having produced the proof or its central argument. A human-authored proof that used Claude as an assistant does not count. Resolver judgment on this element, stated in advance: if Anthropic’s own announcement describes the result as Claude’s, that suffices. • Announcement, not verification. Resolves YES on announcement regardless of whether the proof is later found flawed. Peer review, expert acceptance, and Clay recognition are not required. • Anthropic only. A Navier–Stokes claim from Google DeepMind, OpenAI, or any other lab does not count. Anthropic claiming a different Millennium problem does not count. • Post-creation only. No pre-creation statement satisfies these criteria; as of creation, no such announcement exists. • Resolution by the primary announcement or preprint, linked in the comments.
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 20, 3:40 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.