Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 2T yuan?
This market has resolved. The final Polymarket price was 100.0%.
- Final market price
- 100.0%
- Event deadline
- December 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 100.0%
- Probability seven days before event deadline
- 100.0%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 2T yuan? The final Polymarket price was 100.0%. This market has resolved. The final Polymarket price was 100.0%.
- Market data as of
- August 2, 2026 at 12:14 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- September 5, 2026 at 1:02 AM ET
- Source
- Polymarket
- Event deadline
- December 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 34d ago
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve to “Yes” if CXMT's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading is greater than or equal to the listed value. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if CXMT's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading is greater than or equal to the listed value. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No”. Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page. The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading. In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Market data
24h volume
$0
Liquidity
$0
Total volume
$114.7K
- Category
- Macro / Fed
- Venue
- Polymarket
- Open interest
- —
- Spread
- 0.1 pts
- Best bid
- 99.9%
- Best ask
- 100.0%
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026