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PolymarketMacro / FedUpdated 6m ago

Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?

Market probability
7.7%
Little changed over 24 hours
117 days until the event deadline
Deadline: December 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET

No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.

The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Strong

The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$7.3K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

Lindsay Clancy has been charged by The Commonwealth of Massachusetts with three counts of murder for the death of her three children. You can read more about that here: https://media.wbur.org/wp/2023/09/clancy-indictment.pdf.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Lindsay Clancy has been charged by The Commonwealth of Massachusetts with three counts of murder for the death of her three children. You can read more about that here: https://media.wbur.org/wp/2023/09/clancy-indictment.pdf. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lindsay Clancy is convicted of at least one murder charge in the ongoing Commonwealth v. Lindsay Clancy case by either the specified date, 11:59 PM ET or, in the event of a mistrial, by the end of any retrial that begins before that date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If this case ends due to a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by the court, or results in a verdict of Not Guilty for all murder charges (including by reason of lack of criminal responsibility due to mental illness), this market will resolve to "No". A plea agreement will qualify to resolve this market "Yes" only if it results in a judgment of conviction for murder. If all murder charges against Clancy are dropped, or otherwise changed such that they are no longer considered murder, this market will immediately resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 5, 1:55 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: high · expected error ±9 pts.

Quote-drivenLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Quote-driven

A tight, deep, quote-driven book with little executed flow. The price is stable but reflects resting quotes more than active trading.

  • Tight spread on a liquid, calm market
  • Deep, balanced resting book

The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
58Medium
Where the price path tends to go next377 observed
  • Stable consensus96%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting2%
  • News repricing1%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~32h
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Trading normally.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

$179.9K

Liquidity

$55.8K

Total volume

$425.3K

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
Spread
0.2 pts
Best bid
7.6%
Best ask
7.8%
7-day range
7.1% – 7.7%
Resolves
Dec 31, 2026
Change (pts)1H+0.26H+0.124H+0.27D+0.2

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