UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)
No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.
The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
StrongThe pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve to "Islam Makhachev" if Islam Makhachev is officially declared the winner of the fight against Ian Machado Garry at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Islam Makhachev" if Islam Makhachev is officially declared the winner of the fight against Ian Machado Garry at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026. It will resolve to "Ian Machado Garry" if Ian Machado Garry is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: ufc.com
What could move this market next?
- The scheduled event takes placeAugust 15, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
The contract resolves on the event's outcome.
- Confirmation at the resolution source (ufc.com)
The rules name this source as the basis for settlement.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 15, 4:29 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: high · expected error ±8 pts.
What's happening
Liquid, two-sided, and calm. The current price reads as settled consensus — the latest print is a reasonable summary of what the market believes.
Market data
24h volume
$483.4K
Liquidity
$268.9K
Total volume
$1.1M
- Category
- Macro / Fed