"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" passes "Avatar: The Way of Water"? (>2.3B worldwide)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 99.3%.
- Final market price
- 99.3%
- Event deadline
- October 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 99.3%
- Probability seven days before event deadline
- 99.3%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" passes "Avatar: The Way of Water"? (>2.3B worldwide) The final Manifold price was 99.3%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 99.3%.
- Market data as of
- September 6, 2026 at 5:33 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- September 30, 2026 at 9:56 PM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- October 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 24d ago
What this market actually measures
At the time of market creation, "Avatar: The Way of Water" is the 3rd highest grossing movie of all time, with worldwide gross of $2,334,484,620. This market resolves YES if "Spider Man: Brand New Day" grosses >$2,334,484,620 worldwide during its initial theatrical run, and NO otherwise.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
At the time of market creation, "Avatar: The Way of Water" is the 3rd highest grossing movie of all time, with worldwide gross of $2,334,484,620. This market resolves YES if "Spider Man: Brand New Day" grosses >$2,334,484,620 worldwide during its initial theatrical run, and NO otherwise. The resolution source will be BoxOfficeMojo. I may resolve early if it becomes overwhelmingly clear that BND is not grossing enough anymore to pass the threshold.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ0
Liquidity
Ṁ1K
Total volume
Ṁ42.9K
- Category
- Uncategorized
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 99.3%
- Resolves
- Oct 31, 2026