ProbCastOdds Reliability
TodayTop MoversMarketsWhat ChangedAccuracyWatchlist
⌘K
Checking…
Hot Markets
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?17%▼8.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?21%▼7.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?41%▼15.0Bitcoin Up or Down on August 15?41%▼3.0Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?24%▼9.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?66%▲3.5Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?69%▲8.5Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?17%▼15.6Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?84%▲16.5Will Intel Stock (INTC) reach $150 in 2026?67%▼2.3US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?79%▼3.7Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?28%▲3.0Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?89%▲7.7US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?32%▼7.0Will Anthropic's market cap on the day of their IPO be above 2 trillion?61%▲8.4Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?75%▲4.0
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?17%▼8.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?21%▼7.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?41%▼15.0Bitcoin Up or Down on August 15?41%▼3.0Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?24%▼9.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?66%▲3.5Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?69%▲8.5Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?17%▼15.6Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?84%▲16.5Will Intel Stock (INTC) reach $150 in 2026?67%▼2.3US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?79%▼3.7Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?28%▲3.0Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?89%▲7.7US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?32%▼7.0Will Anthropic's market cap on the day of their IPO be above 2 trillion?61%▲8.4Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?75%▲4.0
Home/Crypto/Ethereum price at Aug 15, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiCryptoUpdated 7m ago

Ethereum price at Aug 15, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Market probability
25.5%
Little changed over 24 hours
Less than a day until the event deadline
Deadline: August 15, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET

Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.

This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Insufficient data

This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Unsettled

The probability moved another 21.5 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

What this market actually measures

If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 1890-1929.99 at 5 PM EDT on Aug 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 1890-1929.99 at 5 PM EDT on Aug 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution source: If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERT…

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesAugust 15, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 14, 5:52 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±36 pts.

Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy

What's happening

high classifier confidence
Reacting to news

The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.

Market data

24h volume

$26.1

Liquidity

Change (pts)1H-21.56H0.024H0.07D0.0
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

0/ 100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Movement100

Magnitude of recent probability change

Liquidity

Insufficient data — this venue reports no volume or book depth for this market, so liquidity can't be measured (unknown, not necessarily poor).

Related markets

Ethereum price at Aug 15, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

2%YESTrust 0
Kalshi$5 24h

Bitcoin Up or Down on August 15?

41%YESTrust 29
Polymarket$115.8K 24h

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?

0%YESTrust 85
ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
  • Probability moved 21.5 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
0Low
Where the price path tends to go next861 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityLow· half-life <1h
PredictabilityHigh irreducibility

Secondary read: leaning toward Resolving soon.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

$0

Total volume

$26.1

Category
Crypto
Venue
Kalshi
Open interest
$26.1
Spread
1.0 pts
Best bid
25.0%
Best ask
26.0%
7-day range
22.5% – 47.0%
Resolves
Aug 15, 2026
Resolution
If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERT…

Trust breakdown

0/100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

  • Liquidity anchor+25
  • Price steadiness+0
  • Missing market data-15
  • Thin liquidity-20
  • Expiring soon-10
  • Limited history-8
  • Big move, weak support-10
Trust score0 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Kalshi

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

Polymarket
$407.7K 24h

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?

99%YESTrust 77
Polymarket$150.1K 24h

Iran full airspace closure by August 15?

1%YESTrust 51
Polymarket$33.9K 24h

Will at least 1,000 people irregularly enter Ceuta from Morocco on 15 August 2026?

8%YESTrust 0
ManifoldṀ94.2 24h
Macro / Fed
Politics
AI / Tech
Geopolitics

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

© 2026 ProbCast · [email protected]