Will OpenAI make Astra publicly available by October 15, 2026?
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 99.0%.
- Final market price
- 99.0%
- Event deadline
- October 15, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 99.0%
- Probability seven days before event deadline
- 99.0%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will OpenAI make Astra publicly available by October 15, 2026? The final Manifold price was 99.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 99.0%.
- Market data as of
- September 8, 2026 at 5:56 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- September 29, 2026 at 10:43 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- October 15, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 21d ago
What this market actually measures
OpenAI introduced **Astra** on 2026-08-01 as "our next major model," publishing research produced by an internal version. As of early August 2026 there is no release date, no pricing, no model card, and no public availability.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
OpenAI introduced **Astra** on 2026-08-01 as "our next major model," publishing research produced by an internal version. As of early August 2026 there is no release date, no pricing, no model card, and no public availability. Meanwhile OpenAI has continued shipping on the GPT-5.x ladder (GPT-5.6 Sol, 2026-08-06). **Resolves YES** if, on or before 2026-10-15 23:59 ET, OpenAI makes the Astra model publicly available — meaning any member of the public can access it through the OpenAI API or through ChatGPT on any tier (free or paid) — as documented on OpenAI's official channels. **Resolution sources (in priority order):** openai.com/news or openai.com/blog; OpenAI's official model or pricing documentation (platform.openai.com/docs/models); OpenAI's verified X account. If those conflict, the documentation page wins. **Counts as YES:** - General availability to any public tier, including a paid-only or Pro-only tier. - A staged/gradual rollout, once OpenAI states it has begun rolling out to a public tier. - A rename: if OpenAI ships the model under a different label (e.g. "GPT-6") and OpenAI's own announcement identifies it as the model previously introduced as Astra, that counts. **Does NOT count:** - Research previews, red-team or safety-tester access, enterprise design partners, or any waitlist without actual public access. - Demos, benchmark posts, or papers about an internal version. - A different model that merely uses Astra-derived techniques. If no qualifying release occurs by the deadline, resolves NO.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ0
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ7.1K
- Category
- AI / Tech
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 99.0%
- Resolves
- Oct 15, 2026