ManifoldAI / TechUpdated 21d ago

Will OpenAI make Astra publicly available by October 15, 2026?

Final price
99.0%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Resolved YES

This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 99.0%.

Final market price
99.0%
Event deadline
October 15, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
Probability 24 hours before event deadline
99.0%
Probability seven days before event deadline
99.0%
Venue status
resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will OpenAI make Astra publicly available by October 15, 2026? The final Manifold price was 99.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 99.0%.

Market data as of
September 8, 2026 at 5:56 AM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 29, 2026 at 10:43 AM ET
Source
Manifold
Event deadline
October 15, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
Market status
Resolved
Data updated
21d ago

What this market actually measures

OpenAI introduced **Astra** on 2026-08-01 as "our next major model," publishing research produced by an internal version. As of early August 2026 there is no release date, no pricing, no model card, and no public availability.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

OpenAI introduced **Astra** on 2026-08-01 as "our next major model," publishing research produced by an internal version. As of early August 2026 there is no release date, no pricing, no model card, and no public availability. Meanwhile OpenAI has continued shipping on the GPT-5.x ladder (GPT-5.6 Sol, 2026-08-06). **Resolves YES** if, on or before 2026-10-15 23:59 ET, OpenAI makes the Astra model publicly available — meaning any member of the public can access it through the OpenAI API or through ChatGPT on any tier (free or paid) — as documented on OpenAI's official channels. **Resolution sources (in priority order):** openai.com/news or openai.com/blog; OpenAI's official model or pricing documentation (platform.openai.com/docs/models); OpenAI's verified X account. If those conflict, the documentation page wins. **Counts as YES:** - General availability to any public tier, including a paid-only or Pro-only tier. - A staged/gradual rollout, once OpenAI states it has begun rolling out to a public tier. - A rename: if OpenAI ships the model under a different label (e.g. "GPT-6") and OpenAI's own announcement identifies it as the model previously introduced as Astra, that counts. **Does NOT count:** - Research previews, red-team or safety-tester access, enterprise design partners, or any waitlist without actual public access. - Demos, benchmark posts, or papers about an internal version. - A different model that merely uses Astra-derived techniques. If no qualifying release occurs by the deadline, resolves NO.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ0

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ7.1K

Category
AI / Tech
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
—
Current probability
99.0%
Resolves
Oct 15, 2026

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