πΊπΈπ¨π¦ Will the U.S. and Canada reach a deal to prevent new 50% U.S. tariffs on Canadian imports by August 19, 2026?
The move lacks solid trading support β treat the new probability with caution.
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume. The probability moved another 5.4 points in the past hour β the market is still repricing.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions β a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology β
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
WeakThe pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
UnsettledThe probability moved another 5.4 points in the past hour β the market is still repricing.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
MediumModerate resolution risk, driven mainly by no resolution basis.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) β a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesAugust 18, 2026 at 4:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 14, 6:57 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals β these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low Β· expected error Β±34 pts.
What's happening
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving β don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
Market data
24h volume
αΉ73.8
Liquidity
αΉ100
Total volume
αΉ73.8