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Home/Macro / Fed/Will a hurricane make landfall in the continental U.S. before October 1, 2026?
ManifoldMacro / FedUpdated 6m ago

Will a hurricane make landfall in the continental U.S. before October 1, 2026?

Market probability
46.0%
+16 percentage points
over 24 hours30.0% → 46.0%
51 days until the event deadline
Deadline: October 1, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET

The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.

The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Weak

The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Forming

Movement has slowed (16 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$57.6 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

Why the odds moved

The probability rose 16.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (30.0% → 46.0%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesOctober 1, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 10, 2:55 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±33 pts.

Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy

What's happening

high classifier confidence
Reacting to news

The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ66

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Change (pts)1H0.06H+16.024H+16.07D+16.0
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

0/ 100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Movement97

Magnitude of recent probability change

Liquidity46

Related markets

Will a hurricane make landfall in the continental U.S. before October 1, 2026?

68%YESTrust 7
ManifoldṀ35.2 24h

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1%YESTrust 90
Polymarket$471.5K 24h

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?

1%YESTrust 93
ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
  • Probability moved 16.0 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
0Low
Where the price path tends to go next852 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityMedium· half-life <1h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility

Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Total volume

Ṁ66

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
—
Current probability
46.0%
7-day range
30.0% – 50.7%
Resolves
Oct 1, 2026

Depth of the order book and volume

Trust breakdown

0/100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

  • Liquidity anchor+34
  • Price steadiness+1
  • Thin liquidity-20
  • Limited history-8
  • Big move, weak support-10
Trust score0 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Manifold

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

Polymarket$678.8K 24h

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?

1%YESTrust 92
Polymarket$591.3K 24h

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

44%YESTrust 65
Polymarket$892.4K 24h

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

55%YESTrust 63
Polymarket$625.7K 24h
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ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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