Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?
The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.
The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth, an unusually wide spread. The probability moved another 9 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
WeakThe pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth, an unusually wide spread.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
UnsettledThe probability moved another 9 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yabloko is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM Moscow time.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yabloko is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Russian authorities that prevents Yabloko from contesting the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections as a political party. This includes, but is not limited to: Yabloko being denied registration to contest the specified election, or having such registration revoked or annulled; Yabloko’s federal list of candidates being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to participate in the federal electoral district; Yabloko being forcibly dissolved, deregistered, or otherwise ceasing to be a legally registered political party in Russia; the party being suspended or otherwise designated in a manner that bars its participation in the specified election; or an official determination that votes cast for Yabloko’s federal list will not be counted or will be invalidated. If Yabloko’s federal list is ineligible to contest the election, this will suffice regardless of whether individual candidates nominated by, affiliated with, or identified with Yabloko remain eligible to contest one or more single-member constituencies. A decision by Yabloko to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the specified election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual Yabloko candidates or officials will not qualify, provided the Yabloko party list remains eligible to contest the specified election. Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Russian government, by Yabloko, or by an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting that Yabloko has been banned may also be used. A qualifying decision will count as soon as it takes legal effect. Once such a decision has taken effect, any subsequent stay, suspension, reversal, annulment, reinstatement, or other action that modifies or renders the decision ineffective will not affect this market’s resolution. Confirmation of a ban must occur by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM Moscow time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on official information from the Russian government and Yabloko; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 7.5 percentage points over the last 24 hours (65.5% → 73.0%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesSeptember 17, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 10, 3:56 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±32 pts.
What's happening
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.