Will Trump announce or order a new U.S. military strike against Iran before August 18th, 2026?
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 4.6%.
- Final market price
- 4.6%
- Event deadline
- August 17, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will Trump announce or order a new U.S. military strike against Iran before August 18th, 2026? The final Manifold price was 4.6%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 4.6%.
- Market data as of
- August 20, 2026 at 8:26 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 1, 2026 at 4:45 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 17, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 41d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolve YES if, before 11.59 PM ET on August 17, 2026, Donald Trump or the U.S. administration publicity announces, confirms, or orders a new U.S.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolve YES if, before 11.59 PM ET on August 17, 2026, Donald Trump or the U.S. administration publicity announces, confirms, or orders a new U.S. military strike against Iranian territory or Iranian military assets.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ198.6
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ1.1K
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 4.6%
- Resolves
- Aug 17, 2026