Will the October 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%?
A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Employment Situation release for October 2026 reports an official U-3 unemployment rate of at least 4.5 percent, seasonally adjusted. Use the household-survey U-3 unemployment rate for October 2026 from the first BLS Employment Situation release.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Employment Situation release for October 2026 reports an official U-3 unemployment rate of at least 4.5 percent, seasonally adjusted. Use the household-survey U-3 unemployment rate for October 2026 from the first BLS Employment Situation release. A value of 4.5% or higher resolves YES. A value of 4.4% or lower resolves NO. Do not use total nonfarm payroll employment, household employment level, labor-force participation, U-6, metro-area or state unemployment rates, demographic subseries, non-seasonally-adjusted values, forecast consensus, any-2026-month markets, or later revisions unless BLS corrects the initial October 2026 release before resolution. If the October 2026 Employment Situation release is delayed, wait for the first BLS release containing the October 2026 U-3 unemployment rate unless there is no such release by November 13, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": "The latest checked BLS Employment Situation release for June 2026 reported U-3 unemployment at 4.2 percent, total nonfarm payroll employment up 57,000, and labor-force participation at 61.5 percent.", "metric": "U-3 official unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, household survey", "related_non_duplicates": ["October 2026 nonfarm-payroll-change markets use CES payrolls, not U-3 unemployment.", "Other months, U-6, labor-force participation, claims, ADP, JOLTS, state, metro, demographic, forecast, and revision markets are not exact duplicates.", "Any-2026-month unemployment markets are not exact duplicates of the October reference-month threshold."], "release_schedule": "BLS schedules the October 2026 Employment Situation release for 2026-11-06 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BLS Employment Situation release for October 2026", "threshold": "4.5 percent or higher"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - BLS Employment Situation release schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm - BLS current Employment Situation PDF: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf - BLS current Employment Situation page: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 6, 2026 at 8:25 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 13, 8:21 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±20 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.