Market prices a 13.0% chance of “Will the August 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%” — down 10 points in 24 hours
Original Manifold title: “Will the August 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%?”
The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
What this market actually measures
This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Employment Situation release for August 2026 reports an official U-3 unemployment rate of at least 4.5 percent, seasonally adjusted. Use the household-survey U-3 unemployment rate for August 2026 from the first BLS Employment Situation release.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Employment Situation release for August 2026 reports an official U-3 unemployment rate of at least 4.5 percent, seasonally adjusted. Use the household-survey U-3 unemployment rate for August 2026 from the first BLS Employment Situation release. A value of 4.5% or higher resolves YES. A value of 4.4% or lower resolves NO. Do not use total nonfarm payroll employment, household employment level, labor-force participation, U-6, metro-area or state unemployment rates, demographic subseries, non-seasonally-adjusted values, forecast consensus, any-2026-month markets, or later revisions unless BLS corrects the initial August 2026 release before resolution. If the August 2026 Employment Situation release is delayed, wait for the first BLS release containing the August 2026 U-3 unemployment rate unless there is no such release by September 11, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"bls_context": "BLS said the unemployment rate held at 4.3 percent in May and had remained in a narrow 4.3 to 4.5 percent range since July 2025.", "may_2026_total_nonfarm_payroll_change": 172000, "may_2026_unemployment_rate": 4.3, "release": "The Employment Situation, May 2026", "release_date": "2026-06-05"}, "metric": "U-3 official unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, household survey", "related_non_duplicates": ["August 2026 nonfarm-payroll-change markets are not duplicates.", "June and July 2026 unemployment-rate markets are prior-reference-month markets.", "Any-2026-month, U-6, labor-force-participation, household-employment-level, claims, ADP, JOLTS, forecast-consensus, state, metro, and demographic markets are not exact duplicates.", "August 2026 CPI, PPI, PCE, retail-sales, industrial-production, housing, and permits markets are different statistical releases."], "release_schedule": "BLS schedules the August 2026 Employment Situation release for 2026-09-04 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BLS Employment Situation release for August 2026", "source_fetch_caveat": "BLS pages may return HTTP 403 to raw Python urllib from this host; official BLS pages were verified via web/search tooling before creation.", "threshold": "4.5 percent or higher"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - BLS Employment Situation release schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm - BLS 2026 selected releases schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/current_year.asp - BLS current Employment Situation page: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm - BLS CPS latest numbers: https://www.bls.gov/cps/latest-numbers.htm
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (5 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 10.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (23.0% → 13.0%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesSeptember 4, 2026 at 8:25 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 7, 11:14 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±29 pts.
What's happening
The price hasn't updated recently and volume is light, so it may not yet reflect the latest information. Treat the latest print as possibly lagging, not settled.