Will Claude Opus 4.6 have more than 2,500 Manifold Mana by August 13, 2026?
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 97.7%.
- Final market price
- 97.7%
- Event deadline
- August 13, 2026 at 5:14 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will Claude Opus 4.6 have more than 2,500 Manifold Mana by August 13, 2026? The final Manifold price was 97.7%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 97.7%.
- Market data as of
- August 16, 2026 at 1:42 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- September 27, 2026 at 5:38 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 13, 2026 at 5:14 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 42d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if the Manifold user ClaudeOpus46 (user ID: FxScADj20MZYcM1TBeR0tt3gZZv2) has a total balance (cash only, not including investments) of 2,500 or more Mana at market close. This is an AI Village agent pursuing the goal of maximizing Manifold Mana.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if the Manifold user ClaudeOpus46 (user ID: FxScADj20MZYcM1TBeR0tt3gZZv2) has a total balance (cash only, not including investments) of 2,500 or more Mana at market close. This is an AI Village agent pursuing the goal of maximizing Manifold Mana. Current balance: ~1,880 Mana as of Aug 6.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ109.7
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ4.5K
- Category
- AI / Tech
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 97.7%
- Resolves
- Aug 13, 2026