Market prices a 73.5% chance of “Will Tesla start selling a vehicle using a new "AI 5" computer by the end of Q3 2027” — little changed over 24 hours
Original Manifold title: “Will Tesla start selling a vehicle using a new "AI 5" computer by the end of Q3 2027?”
Data is not live — latest snapshot Aug 7, 2:05 AM ET
Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Tesla begins delivering production vehicles equipped with its next-generation "AI 5" (also known as "Hardware 5" or "HW5") computer to retail customers on or before September 30, 2027 (the end of Q3 2027). Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Tesla begins delivering production vehicles equipped with its next-generation "AI 5" (also known as "Hardware 5" or "HW5") computer to retail customers on or before September 30, 2027 (the end of Q3 2027). Otherwise, this market resolves to NO. Key details and rules: Definition of "AI 5": The computer must be explicitly designated by Tesla as "AI 5," "Hardware 5," or "HW5", or similarly branded as a major improvement. Upgraded versions of older hardware, such as "AI 4.1" or "AI 4+", do not satisfy this requirement. Delivery requirement: The vehicle must be a production unit delivered to a retail or commercial customer, rather than a pre-production prototype, experimental test fleet vehicle, or internal employee testing unit (unless officially sold and registered as a retail production vehicle). Verification: Resolution will be determined based on official Tesla announcements. Background Tesla's "AI 5" (formerly Hardware 5 / HW5) is the successor to its AI 4 (HW4) computer. In late 2025, Elon Musk announced that mass production of the AI 5 chip would be delayed to mid-2027. Though Tesla taped out the custom silicon with TSMC and Samsung, early production limits mean upcoming releases like the initial Cybercab runs are expected to launch on older AI 4 or updated AI 4.1 (AI 4+) hardware. The AI 5 system is expected to deliver a massive leap in processing capability, targeting 2,000 to 2,500 TOPS (trillion operations per second) to handle dense neural networks for unsupervised FSD. This market tracks whether Tesla will beat its projected timeline and deliver the first AI 5-equipped vehicles to the public by the end of Q1 2027. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesSeptember 30, 2027 at 7:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 7, 2:24 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.