ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDevelopingUpdated 8m ago

Will Tesla run fully driverless robotaxis (no safety monitor) in 3+ US metros beyond Austin by Aug 1, 2027?

As of Oct 22, 2026, 6:04 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 98.0% (up from 97.1% 24 hours earlier). It had 100 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.

Market probability
98.0%
+0.9 percentage points
over 24 hours97.1% → 98.0%

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — though most recent trading came from one account.

Price historyManifold

Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Moderate

Consensus stability

Stable

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

100 mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

100 mana

Total volume

1K mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

One account dominates
63%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

8

Trades

15

over 77 days

Largest order

300 mana

962.4 mana traded across these 15 trades (last 77 days).

One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.

Recent trade activity$962.4 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

Resolution criteria: this market resolves YES if, by August 1, 2027 (the RESOLUTION_DEADLINE), Tesla is providing public robotaxi rides with no human safety monitor or driver present in the vehicle, in at least 3 distinct U.S. metropolitan areas other than Austin, TX (Austin already qualifies as of market creation, since Tesla operates unsupervised rides there).

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolution criteria: this market resolves YES if, by August 1, 2027 (the RESOLUTION_DEADLINE), Tesla is providing public robotaxi rides with no human safety monitor or driver present in the vehicle, in at least 3 distinct U.S. metropolitan areas other than Austin, TX (Austin already qualifies as of market creation, since Tesla operates unsupervised rides there). Requirements for a city to count: 1. Rides must have zero human safety monitor or driver physically present in the vehicle (a city where rides still require an in-car human monitor, such as the San Francisco Bay Area under current California law, does not count). 2. Service must be generally available to public riders, not an employee-only or invite-only internal pilot. 3. Confirmed via both Tesla official sources (earnings call, investor letter, or the Tesla robotaxi app city list) and independent reporting (for example Electrek, Teslarati, Reuters, or similar trade press). This market resolves NO if, as of August 1, 2027, fewer than 3 additional metro areas (beyond Austin) meet all three requirements above, including if expansion remains limited to supervised or monitored rides in those cities. Source of truth: Tesla official communications cross-referenced with independent trade press reporting, as described above. Closes August 6, 2027 (5 days after the RESOLUTION_DEADLINE) to allow time for confirmation and reporting.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesAugust 5, 2027 at 8:00 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 22, 6:11 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±18 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

low classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

  • Thin book and/or wide spread.

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
15Low
Where the price path tends to go next525 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet98%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting1%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~4d
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H+0.97D+0.9

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