Will Substack implement an automatic AI-generated-content filter by EoY 2026?
Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
Insufficient dataThis venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if, by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM PT, Substack implements a platform-wide feature that automatically filters, downranks, or hides AI-generated content, or provides a global setting allowing users to automatically filter such content from their feeds (such as the Inbox, Home, or Discover feeds). To qualify as an "automatic filter," the system must apply feed-wide rat…
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if, by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM PT, Substack implements a platform-wide feature that automatically filters, downranks, or hides AI-generated content, or provides a global setting allowing users to automatically filter such content from their feeds (such as the Inbox, Home, or Discover feeds). To qualify as an "automatic filter," the system must apply feed-wide rather than requiring readers to manually initiate scans on individual posts. The market will resolve to NO if: The only available AI content tool remains the manual, post-by-post "Scan for AI text" tool introduced in July 2026. No platform-level automatic feed filter for AI-generated text is officially launched by the deadline. Resolution will be determined using official Substack product announcements (e.g., Substack Blog) or credible tech journalism reports (such as TechCrunch, Axios, Mashable, or 404 Media). Background In July 2026, Substack partnered with Pangram Labs to launch an AI detection tool. This manual feature allows readers to scan individual notes, posts, and comments to estimate what portion of the text is machine-authored. Following the initial release, Substack leadership indicated that future updates may allow readers to set global preferences to automatically filter AI-generated content from their recommended feeds altogether. This market tracks whether Substack moves beyond manual, reader-triggered scans to introduce a systemic, automatic feed-filtering feature by the end of 2026. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 18, 10:17 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±20 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet98%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ0
Liquidity
Ṁ1K
Total volume
Ṁ1.3K
- Category
- AI / Tech
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 29.1%
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026