Bitcoin Up or Down on September 18?
A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
FormingMovement has slowed (8.6 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 17 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 18 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 17 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 18 '26 12…
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 17 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 18 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 17 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 18 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Resolution source: binance.com
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 8.6 percentage points over the last 24 hours (87.5% → 96.1%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesSeptember 18, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
- Confirmation at the resolution source (binance.com)
The rules name this source as the basis for settlement.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 18, 6:04 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: medium · expected error ±23 pts.
What's happening
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 8.6 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Trend continuation54%
- News repricing31%
- Stable consensus10%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Resolving soon.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
$97.8K
Liquidity
$46.9K
Total volume
$97.9K
- Category
- Crypto
- Venue
- Polymarket
- Open interest
- —
- Spread
- 0.1 pts
- Best bid
- 96.0%
- Best ask
- 96.1%
- 7-day range
- 85.5% – 96.5%
- Resolves
- Sep 18, 2026
- Resolution
- binance.com