Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
18.1 mana
Total volume
244.4 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Kash Patel gone as FBI Director before EOY 2026?
As of Oct 18, 2026, 1:10 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 19.0% (down from 21.7% 24 hours earlier). It had 18.1 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
19.0%
−2.7 percentage points
over 24 hours21.7% → 19.0%
Not live — snapshot Oct 18, 1:10 AM ET
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (2.7 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
55%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
7
Trades
61
over 63 days
Largest order
20.3 mana
224.3 mana traded across these 61 trades (last 63 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$224.3 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
[image]Resolution criteria Kash Patel became the ninth Director of the FBI on February 20, 2025. This market resolves YES if Patel is no longer serving as FBI Director before December 31, 2026.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
[image]Resolution criteria Kash Patel became the ninth Director of the FBI on February 20, 2025. This market resolves YES if Patel is no longer serving as FBI Director before December 31, 2026. This includes resignation, removal, or any other departure from the position. Resolution will be determined by official FBI leadership announcements or credible news reporting of his departure. The market resolves NO if Patel remains FBI Director through December 31, 2026. Background Patel was confirmed by the Republican-led Senate by a 51-49 vote, with Republican Sens. Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski joining all Democrats in opposing him. Unlike his two immediate predecessors, Patel has no experience as a senior law enforcement official. A former fierce critic of the FBI, Kash Patel is now leading the agency and making drastic changes. Considerations FBI directors are appointed to 10-year terms specifically designed to insulate them from political pressure. However, neither of Patel's immediate predecessors served out the job's full 10-year term—Trump fired then-director James Comey in 2017. Patel's narrow confirmation margin and lack of law enforcement experience distinguish him from recent predecessors, who received substantially higher confirmation votes. (Identical market to: source market)
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:58 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 18, 2:50 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±22 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
12Low
Where the price path tends to go next570 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
- Choppy / mean-reverting1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~24h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward One big trader.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H-2.724H-2.77D-2.7
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