Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
200 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
34.4 mana
Total volume
5.3K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will OpenAI solve a new millennium prize problem by EOY 2026?
As of Oct 26, 2026, 2:53 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 34.0% (up from 31.9% 24 hours earlier). It had 34.4 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 200 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
34.0%
+2.1 percentage points
over 24 hours31.9% → 34.0%
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
40%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
28
Trades
104
over 44 days
Largest order
1.5K mana
6.1K mana traded across these 104 trades (last 44 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$6.1K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
In its Wednesday night statement, OpenAI said: “In addition, since the completion of Navier-Stokes, we have made substantial progress on another Millennium Prize problem. We are working through how to share these results thoughtfully.” nytimes.com [link preview]
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
In its Wednesday night statement, OpenAI said: “In addition, since the completion of Navier-Stokes, we have made substantial progress on another Millennium Prize problem. We are working through how to share these results thoughtfully.” nytimes.com [link preview]
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 26, 3:00 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±23 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
8Low
Where the price path tends to go next543 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
- Choppy / mean-reverting1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~13h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H+2.17D+2.1
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