Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
1.1K mana
Total volume
1.8K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Democrats win Nevadas 2nd congressional district in 2026?
As of Oct 12, 2026, 4:22 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 28.0% (down from 31.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 1.1K mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
28.0%
−3 percentage points
over 24 hours31.0% → 28.0%
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (3 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
44%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
6
Trades
7
over 3 days
Largest order
890 mana
2K mana traded across these 7 trades (last 3 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$2K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
2026 United States House of Representatives elections in Nevada - Wikipedia Resolves YES if the Democratic candidate wins. The Democrat candidate is Teresa Benitez-Thompson The Republican candidate is Dave Flippo
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
2026 United States House of Representatives elections in Nevada - Wikipedia Resolves YES if the Democratic candidate wins. The Democrat candidate is Teresa Benitez-Thompson The Republican candidate is Dave Flippo
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 3.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (31.0% → 28.0%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 12, 4:25 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±20 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
20Low
Where the price path tends to go next1235 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~26h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Reacting to news.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
1.1K mana
Liquidity
1K mana
Total volume
1.8K mana
- Category
- Politics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 28.0%
- 7-day range
- 28.0% – 31.0%
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026
Change (pts)1H0.06H-3.024H-3.07D-3.0
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