Market prices a 33.3% chance of “Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026” — little changed over 24 hours
Original Manifold title: “Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?”
Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) has an official regular-session closing price of at least $250.00 on any trading day from this market's creation through September 30, 2026, inclusive. Otherwise resolves NO.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) has an official regular-session closing price of at least $250.00 on any trading day from this market's creation through September 30, 2026, inclusive. Otherwise resolves NO. Use Nasdaq's unadjusted historical Close/Last price as the primary resolution source. Premarket and after-hours trades, intraday highs, and adjusted-close series do not count. A close displayed as exactly $250.00 counts. If NVDA has a stock split or reverse split before the deadline, adjust the $250 threshold inversely by the split factor so the same pre-split economic value is preserved. For example, after a 2-for-1 split, the threshold becomes $125; after a 1-for-2 reverse split, it becomes $500. Ordinary dividends do not adjust the threshold. If the September 30 official close is delayed or corrected, wait for Nasdaq's final historical record. If NVDA is halted or delisted before the deadline without any qualifying close, resolve NO after confirming the last official close. Sources: - Nasdaq NVDA quote: https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/nvda - Nasdaq NVDA historical closes: https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/nvda/historical
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesSeptember 30, 2026 at 4:05 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 7, 12:51 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Market data
24h volume
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Liquidity