Market prices a 3.3% chance of “Will NATO cease to exist before 2030” — little changed over 24 hours

This market resolves YES if, at any point on or before December 31, 2029, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization ceases to exist as defined below; otherwise it resolves NO. Resolves YES if any of the following occurs: The North Atlantic Treaty (the 1949 Washington Treaty) is formally terminated or abrogated, or NATO is formally dissolved, disbanded, or wound down as an organization, whether by agreement of its members or otherwise. NATO's core institutions are formally abolished such that the organization no longer operates — e.g., its command structure and headquarters are shut and the office of Secretary General is abolished with no continuation. NATO's membership falls below two states (a collective-defense alliance cannot exist with fewer than two members). Does NOT resolve YES (these are explicitly insufficient): The United States, or any other single member, withdraws from or suspends its participation in NATO while the organization continues among the remaining members. A member is suspended or expelled, troops are withdrawn or repositioned, defense-spending disputes, or Article 5 is declared non-binding, ignored, or not invoked in a given conflict. NATO is reformed, restructured, relocated, or its membership shifts (e.g., to a Europe-led composition) while the treaty-based organization legally continues. NATO is renamed, provided the same treaty-based collective-defense organization continues with legal continuity. (A pure rename of the continuing organization is NOT ceasing to exist. Formal dissolution of NATO counts as YES even if a new, separate alliance is created to replace it.) Source of record. Resolution relies on: (a) official NATO communications (nato.int) and/or the official act of the member states terminating the treaty or dissolving the organization, confirmed by (b) at least two major reputable news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, AFP). If NATO's official status is unambiguous from its own institutions (e.g., nato.int continues to present it as an operating alliance with a sitting Secretary General and members), the market resolves NO at the deadline. Ambiguity / partial-collapse. If NATO is widely described as "defunct" or "collapsed" but has not been formally dissolved and its institutions still nominally operate, that does NOT meet the bar; only the formal/structural triggers above count. Where the facts are genuinely ambiguous as to whether a formal dissolution has occurred, the market resolves to the consensus of the major reputable sources above: if they conflict, it stays NO until a clear formal dissolution is reported. Early resolution. May resolve YES early as soon as a formal dissolution is confirmed by the sources above. May resolve NO early only if a definitive, irreversible event makes "cease to exist by 2029" impossible (not expected to arise; default is to hold to the deadline). Judgment. Where these criteria are unambiguous, the criteria govern. Where ambiguous or contradictory, the market resolves to its spirit — "has the organization known as NATO been formally dissolved or wound down, as opposed to merely weakened, shrunk, or transformed." Ambiguities will be fixed promptly once flagged; betting through an un-flagged ambiguity is at the bettor's own risk.