Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1.4K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
24.6 mana
Total volume
911.6 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Faster S&P 500 Crash than the Dotcom Bubble before 2030?
As of Oct 19, 2026, 2:50 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 48.1% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 24.6 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1.4K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
48.1%
Little changed over 24 hours
Not live — snapshot Oct 19, 2:50 PM ET
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
55%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
6
Trades
11
over 73 days
Largest order
250 mana
911.6 mana traded across these 11 trades (last 73 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$911.6 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
The S&P 500 dropped 25.3% in one year from its peak of 1518 in August 2000 to 1134 in August 2001. Resolves yes if the S&P drops 25.4% or more over a period of a year or less before 2030.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
The S&P 500 dropped 25.3% in one year from its peak of 1518 in August 2000 to 1134 in August 2001. Resolves yes if the S&P drops 25.4% or more over a period of a year or less before 2030. Only closing prices count.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2029 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 19, 4:11 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±16 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
low classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
19Low
Where the price path tends to go next649 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
- Choppy / mean-reverting2%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life —
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0