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Event · resolves around 2026-08-31
2 related contracts across Manifold. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.
| Will Anthropic release the system card of a model at a new frontier of intellegence by August 31st? | Manifold | 40% | 0.0 pts | 30 | Worth watching |
| Will Anthropic publicly release Claude Opus 4.9 by August 31, 2026? | Manifold | 5% | 0.0 pts | 26 | Worth watching |
Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.