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Wednesday, October 28, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved down 22.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 12.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 9.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved up 29.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 30.6 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 23.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Widest venue disagreement
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
gap 0.5 ptsSettled (16 in 24h)
- Will the S&P 500 close higher on Tuesday, October 27, 2026 than on Monday, October 26, 2026?Manifoldyes
- Will the Nasdaq Composite close higher on Tuesday, October 27, 2026 than on Monday, October 26, 2026?Manifoldyes
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?Polymarketyes
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?Polymarketyes
- Did ya’ll like my last market?Manifoldyes
- Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%?Polymarketno
- Will Google release a higher-quality successor to Nano Banana Pro before November?Manifoldyes
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?Polymarketno
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.