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Tuesday, October 27, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved up 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 2.2 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 11.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved down 52.3 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 13.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 46.1 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Widest venue disagreement
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
gap 1.1 ptsSettled (36 in 24h)
- Will Anthropic release a new Claude Fable model before October 26, 2026?Manifoldno
- Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 40%?Polymarketno
- Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?Polymarketyes
- Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?Polymarketno
- Will Trump claim the Brazilian election was rigged?Manifoldyes
- Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%?Polymarketno
- Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 30%?Polymarketno
- New official forum update in October 2026?Manifoldyes
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.