Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
156.4 mana
Total volume
227.4 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Anthropic Reports “Major Scientific Discovery” before IPO?
As of Oct 26, 2026, 9:32 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 32.5% (down from 73.2% 24 hours earlier). It had 156.4 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
32.5%
−40.7 percentage points
over 24 hours73.2% → 32.5%
Moving fastBig move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — and today's move was spread across many accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
Broad participation
22%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
10
Trades
21
over 50 days
Largest order
50 mana
225.5 mana traded across these 21 trades (last 50 days).
Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one trader.
Recent trade activity$225.5 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
An AI journalist recently claimed that Anthropic will release a SOTA model ahead of its IPO, with the “story built around a major scientific discovery”. https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/s/AoZ7CBvZcq [image]Resolves yes if this actually happens (the scientific discovery, regardless of whether a new model is released).
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
An AI journalist recently claimed that Anthropic will release a SOTA model ahead of its IPO, with the “story built around a major scientific discovery”. https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/s/AoZ7CBvZcq [image]Resolves yes if this actually happens (the scientific discovery, regardless of whether a new model is released). My criteria is that this discovery (whichever field of science it applies to) must be generally considered equally or more significant than any of the Claude mathematical results Anthropic and Anthropic employees have already reported on. If it appears too close to tell, I will err on resolving yes. If multiple discoveries are reported, I will judge the most impressive one. The finding need not be validated, this market will resolve based on how significant the result Anthropic reports is, assuming it is legitimate. Since I am not any kind of scientist I will look to the opinions of experts to judge how impressive any claimed discovery is.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 40.7 percentage points over the last 24 hours (73.2% → 32.5%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 26, 9:39 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±30 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
0Low
Where the price path tends to go next450 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~4h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility
Secondary read: leaning toward Resolving soon.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H-40.77D-40.7
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