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Monday, October 26, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved down 3.3 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 4.1 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 4.6 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved up 75.1 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 49.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 24.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Widest venue disagreement
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
gap 1.0 ptsSettled (43 in 24h)
- Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?Polymarketno
- Will Ethereum reach $3,100 October 19-25?Polymarketno
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?Polymarketno
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?Polymarketno
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?Polymarketno
- Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Polymarketno
- Will Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability! win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Polymarketno
- Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Polymarketyes
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.