ProbCast.coOdds Reliability

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Sunday, October 25, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026?

Moved down 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-4.063%Confirmed move
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Moved up 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+7.084%Confirmed move
Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?

Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-2.072%Confirmed move
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?

Moved up 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+4.041%Confirmed move
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?

Moved up 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+5.091%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will Mochi stay in masters this season

Moved up 25.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+25.893%Likely noise
Will fatespeaker reach Candidate Master on Codeforces before 2027?

Moved down 53.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-53.434%Likely noise
Will the U.S. publish the text of its Saudi nuclear agreement by December 31?

Moved up 27.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+27.958%Likely noise

Widest venue disagreement

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

gap 2.0 pts
Polymarket96%Kalshi94%

Settled (14 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.