Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
50 mana
Total volume
95 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will the U.S. publish the text of its Saudi nuclear agreement by December 31?
As of Oct 25, 2026, 3:33 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 58.2% (up from 30.3% 24 hours earlier). It had 50 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
58.2%
+27.9 percentage points
over 24 hours30.3% → 58.2%
Moving fastBig move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (27.9 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
53%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
4
Trades
4
over 59 days
Largest order
50 mana
95 mana traded across these 4 trades (last 59 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$95 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if the U.S. government or Congress officially publishes the substantive text of the U.S.–Saudi civil nuclear cooperation agreement by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if the U.S. government or Congress officially publishes the substantive text of the U.S.–Saudi civil nuclear cooperation agreement by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise resolves NO. Publication of the main agreement counts even if classified annexes remain secret. Leaks and unofficial summaries do not count. Source: Associated Press. The market closes twelve hours before the deadline. Related markets from today's news Will Congress pass a resolution rejecting the U.S.–Saudi nuclear agreement by December 31? Will the temporary Iran–Oman Hormuz shipping route begin operating by September 15? Will Iran and Oman announce a permanent Hormuz shipping scheme by October 31? Will Armenia formally apply for EU membership by December 31, 2026? Will Spain enact its new asylum law by December 31, 2026? Will a UN body launch treaty negotiations on autonomous weapons by December 31? Will UNICEF's 2026 Afghanistan appeal finish at least 50% funded? Will New Zealand's Online Safety Bill receive a first-reading vote before October 1? Will SpaceX launch a rocket from Louisiana by December 31, 2028?
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 27.9 percentage points over the last 24 hours (30.3% → 58.2%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 11:59 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 25, 3:40 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±31 pts.
Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
high classifier confidence
Reacting to news
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 27.9 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
5Low
Where the price path tends to go next532 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~2h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H+27.924H+27.97D+27.9
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