Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
738.3 mana
Total volume
902.9 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
As of Oct 28, 2026, 2:38 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 10.0% (down from 40.6% 24 hours earlier). It had 738.3 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.
Source: Manifold price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (30.6 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
738.3 mana
Total volume
902.9 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
10
Trades
16
over 112 days
Largest order
250 mana
841.3 mana traded across these 16 trades (last 112 days).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Right now the app involves using the manifold website to access at least on Iphone. Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if, before July 1, 2027, Manifold Markets releases an official mobile application (for iOS and/or Android) that is built using a native UI framework (such as SwiftUI, Jetpack Compose, Flutter, or fully-native React Native UI elements), rather than primarily rendering their Next.js web ap…
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
Right now the app involves using the manifold website to access at least on Iphone. Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if, before July 1, 2027, Manifold Markets releases an official mobile application (for iOS and/or Android) that is built using a native UI framework (such as SwiftUI, Jetpack Compose, Flutter, or fully-native React Native UI elements), rather than primarily rendering their Next.js web application inside a WebView wrapper. Specifically: The mobile app must render its core features (including browsing markets, placing bets, and viewing profiles) natively rather than pulling in the standard web interface via an iframe, WebView, or PWA-equivalent shell. Evidence of a native rebuild can come from official developer updates, the Manifold Changelog, Manifold's Substack, or public repository updates on the Manifold GitHub showing a transition away from react-native-webview wrapper code. If Manifold continues to rely on a WebView-based wrapper or only releases minor updates to their existing hybrid applications, this market will resolve to NO. Background Manifold's existing iOS and Android applications are primarily shells that wrap their Next.js web application using Expo and react-native-webview. Consequently, mobile app users are essentially navigating the responsive web version of manifold.markets inside an app frame. This market asks whether Manifold will transition to a fully native mobile application experience before July 2027. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
The probability fell 30.6 percentage points over the last 24 hours (40.6% → 10.0%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 28, 2:46 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±30 pts.
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward One big trader.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.