ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechLikely noiseUpdated 8m ago

Will Manifold create an actual Manifold Mobile App before July 2027?

As of Oct 28, 2026, 2:38 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 10.0% (down from 40.6% 24 hours earlier). It had 738.3 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.

Market probability
10.0%
−30.6 percentage points
over 24 hours40.6% → 10.0%
Moving fastBig move, weak backing

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.

Price historyManifold

Source: Manifold price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Weak

Consensus stability

Forming

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

100 mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

738.3 mana

Total volume

902.9 mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

One account dominates
80%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

10

Trades

16

over 112 days

Largest order

250 mana

841.3 mana traded across these 16 trades (last 112 days).

One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.

Recent trade activity$841.3 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

Right now the app involves using the manifold website to access at least on Iphone. Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if, before July 1, 2027, Manifold Markets releases an official mobile application (for iOS and/or Android) that is built using a native UI framework (such as SwiftUI, Jetpack Compose, Flutter, or fully-native React Native UI elements), rather than primarily rendering their Next.js web ap…

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Right now the app involves using the manifold website to access at least on Iphone. Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if, before July 1, 2027, Manifold Markets releases an official mobile application (for iOS and/or Android) that is built using a native UI framework (such as SwiftUI, Jetpack Compose, Flutter, or fully-native React Native UI elements), rather than primarily rendering their Next.js web application inside a WebView wrapper. Specifically: The mobile app must render its core features (including browsing markets, placing bets, and viewing profiles) natively rather than pulling in the standard web interface via an iframe, WebView, or PWA-equivalent shell. Evidence of a native rebuild can come from official developer updates, the Manifold Changelog, Manifold's Substack, or public repository updates on the Manifold GitHub showing a transition away from react-native-webview wrapper code. If Manifold continues to rely on a WebView-based wrapper or only releases minor updates to their existing hybrid applications, this market will resolve to NO. Background Manifold's existing iOS and Android applications are primarily shells that wrap their Next.js web application using Expo and react-native-webview. Consequently, mobile app users are essentially navigating the responsive web version of manifold.markets inside an app frame. This market asks whether Manifold will transition to a fully native mobile application experience before July 2027. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.

Why the odds moved

The probability fell 30.6 percentage points over the last 24 hours (40.6% → 10.0%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesJune 30, 2027 at 7:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 28, 2:46 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±30 pts.

Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy

What's happening

high classifier confidence
Reacting to news

The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.

  • Probability moved 30.6 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
  • Flow one-directional across 10 participants (broad, not a single order)

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
6Low
Where the price path tends to go next502 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet98%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityMedium· half-life ~4h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility

Secondary read: leaning toward One big trader.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Change (pts)1H0.06H-30.624H-30.67D-30.6

Related markets