ProbCastOdds Reliability

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Tuesday, September 29, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Trump renames AI by September 30?

Moved up 24.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+24.552%Confirmed move
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

Moved down 9.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-9.076%Confirmed move
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Moved up 3.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+3.557%Confirmed move
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

Moved up 8.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+8.577%Confirmed move
Will Ethereum reach $2,900 in September?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+1.05%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?

Moved up 34.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+34.084%Likely noise
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in September?

Moved down 38.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-38.023%Likely noise
Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in November 2026?

Moved down 23.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-23.529%Likely noise

Settled (16 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.