PolymarketAI / TechUpdated 6m ago

Trump renames AI by October 31?

As of Sep 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 97.4% (up from 72.0% 24 hours earlier). It had $64.2K traded in the past 24 hours, $21.9K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 0.7 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.

Market probability
97.4%
+25.4 percentage points
over 24 hours72.0% → 97.4%
32 days until the qualification deadline
Latest eligible start date: October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
The market can resolve after this date while a qualifying period defined in the rules completes.

The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.

The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Weak

The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Forming

Movement has slowed (25.4 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$33.1K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order, proclamation, or presidential memorandum that adopts a new official name for artificial intelligence, or directs a federal agency or the federal government to adopt one, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order, proclamation, or presidential memorandum that adopts a new official name for artificial intelligence, or directs a federal agency or the federal government to adopt one, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying action must replace or supersede "artificial intelligence" as the federal government's designation for the technology itself. Any replacement name qualifies, including "Superior Intelligence", "Extreme Intelligence", "Supreme Intelligence", or "Genius Intelligence"; the name chosen has no bearing on resolution. An order that directs an agency to adopt or implement such a name within a stated period qualifies. Statements, speeches, interviews, press conferences, and social media posts, including polls posted to social media, do not count. Renaming a federal office, agency, program, task force, commission, or military service, such as an "AI Force", does not count unless the same action also renames the technology itself. Renaming a specific product, model, or private-sector system does not count. Incidental use of an alternative term in the text of an order, without a directive adopting it as the official designation, does not count. The signing or issuance of a qualifying order within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the order takes effect, and regardless of whether it is subsequently stayed, enjoined, revoked, or superseded. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, including the text of presidential actions published at whitehouse.gov and in the Federal Register; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why the odds moved

The probability rose 25.4 percentage points over the last 24 hours (72.0% → 97.4%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

  • The latest eligible start date passesOctober 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET

    After this date, no new qualifying period can begin under the rules.

  • Completion of the qualifying period defined in the rules

    Resolution follows once the defined period finishes without a disqualifying event.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 29, 5:04 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Probability by deadline

The same event, priced across deadline contracts on this venue.

Extending the deadline from Oct 31 to Dec 31 adds about 0.5 percentage points of implied probability.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±29 pts.

Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy

What's happening

high classifier confidence
Reacting to news

The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.

  • Probability moved 25.4 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
2Low
Where the price path tends to go next96 observed
  • Thin-liquidity spike75%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting15%
  • Trend continuation4%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityMedium· half-life <1h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility

Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

$64.2K

Liquidity

$21.9K

Total volume

$65.2K

Category
AI / Tech
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
—
Spread
0.7 pts
Best bid
97.0%
Best ask
97.7%
7-day range
72.0% – 98.4%
Resolves
Oct 31, 2026
Change (pts)1H-0.96H+25.424H+25.47D+25.4

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