Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
50 mana
Total volume
1.9K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
As of Oct 20, 2026, 1:04 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 25.4% (up from 22.1% 24 hours earlier). It had 50 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — and today's move was spread across many accounts.
Source: Manifold price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (3.2 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
50 mana
Total volume
1.9K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
25
Trades
52
over 61 days
Largest order
250 mana
1.9K mana traded across these 52 trades (last 61 days).
Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one trader.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Market: Trump meets Kim Jong Un in 2026? All dates and times in this market are Pacific Time (America/Los_Angeles, DST-aware).
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
Market: Trump meets Kim Jong Un in 2026? All dates and times in this market are Pacific Time (America/Los_Angeles, DST-aware). Resolves YES if: Donald J. Trump and Kim Jong Un are physically present in the same location and directly interact in person (conversation, handshake, or joint appearance with mutual engagement) at any point between January 1, 2026, 00:00 PT and December 31, 2026, 23:59 PT. Qualifying conditions: In-person only. Phone calls, video calls, letters, or messages relayed through intermediaries do not count. Duration and substance are irrelevant. A brief encounter counts (precedent: the June 2019 DMZ meeting). No agreement, summit designation, or formal agenda is required. The meeting may occur anywhere, including inside North Korea, at the DMZ, or at a multilateral event, provided direct interaction occurs. Mere presence at the same venue without documented interaction does not count. Person-based, not office-based. This market tracks the two named individuals. It resolves on their meeting regardless of whether Trump holds the presidency or Kim holds his current titles at the time. A meeting between successors or delegates does not count. If either individual dies or is verifiably incapacitated before a qualifying meeting occurs, the market remains open and resolves NO at year end unless a qualifying meeting occurred before that event. The qualifying moment is when the in-person interaction occurs, converted to PT. A meeting occurring on January 1, 2027 in Korea Standard Time still resolves YES if it falls within December 31, 2026 PT. A meeting occurring on January 1, 2026 KST resolves NO if it falls within December 31, 2025 PT. Verification standard: Resolution requires either (a) official confirmation from the White House, US State Department, or DPRK state media (KCNA), or (b) concurrent independent reporting of the meeting as fact by at least two of: AP, Reuters, AFP, BBC, New York Times, Wall Street Journal. Anonymous sourcing describing a planned or rumored meeting does not qualify. Photographic or video evidence is corroborating but not required. Timing of resolution: Resolves YES as soon as the verification standard is met. Resolves NO on January 1, 2027, 00:00 PT if no qualifying meeting has been verified by that time. If a meeting is credibly reported but disputed as of the NO deadline, resolution is held open for up to 14 days for the verification standard to be met or fail, then resolves accordingly.
The probability rose 3.2 percentage points over the last 24 hours (22.1% → 25.3%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 20, 1:15 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±22 pts.
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.