Will 'Old Vegas' shut down the 51 Alpha prediction markets happy hour?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 3.9%.
- Final market price
- 3.9%
- Event deadline
- September 29, 2026 at 11:00 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will 'Old Vegas' shut down the 51 Alpha prediction markets happy hour? The final Manifold price was 3.9%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 3.9%.
- Market data as of
- October 1, 2026 at 9:13 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 22, 2026 at 1:51 PM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- September 29, 2026 at 11:00 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 21d ago
What this market actually measures
Earlier this year, a prediction market conference was forced to leave Las Vegas because Nevada gaming regulators pressured the venue. The 51 Alpha Prediction Markets Happy Hour is scheduled for September 29th during the G2E conference.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Earlier this year, a prediction market conference was forced to leave Las Vegas because Nevada gaming regulators pressured the venue. The 51 Alpha Prediction Markets Happy Hour is scheduled for September 29th during the G2E conference. This market will resolve YES if the event is forced to cancel, reschedule, or relocate due to casino industry or regulator pressure. Media reports and statements by the event organizer will be used to resolve the market. If the happy hour occurs on Sept 29 at 5pm PT at the designated venue, then the market will resolve NO. The market creator will not trade in this market. Event information can be found here: https://luma.com/ogpq57qj [link preview]