Trump renames AI by December 31?
As of Sep 29, 2026, 2:53 AM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 68.0% (down from 68.5% 24 hours earlier). It had $41.6K traded in the past 24 hours, $38K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 2.0 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
FormingMovement has slowed (0.5 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order, proclamation, or presidential memorandum that adopts a new official name for artificial intelligence, or directs a federal agency or the federal government to adopt one, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order, proclamation, or presidential memorandum that adopts a new official name for artificial intelligence, or directs a federal agency or the federal government to adopt one, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying action must replace or supersede "artificial intelligence" as the federal government's designation for the technology itself. Any replacement name qualifies, including "Superior Intelligence", "Extreme Intelligence", "Supreme Intelligence", or "Genius Intelligence"; the name chosen has no bearing on resolution. An order that directs an agency to adopt or implement such a name within a stated period qualifies. Statements, speeches, interviews, press conferences, and social media posts, including polls posted to social media, do not count. Renaming a federal office, agency, program, task force, commission, or military service, such as an "AI Force", does not count unless the same action also renames the technology itself. Renaming a specific product, model, or private-sector system does not count. Incidental use of an alternative term in the text of an order, without a directive adopting it as the official designation, does not count. The signing or issuance of a qualifying order within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the order takes effect, and regardless of whether it is subsequently stayed, enjoined, revoked, or superseded. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, including the text of presidential actions published at whitehouse.gov and in the Federal Register; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
What could move this market next?
- The latest eligible start date passesDecember 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
After this date, no new qualifying period can begin under the rules.
- Completion of the qualifying period defined in the rules
Resolution follows once the defined period finishes without a disqualifying event.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 29, 3:03 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Probability by deadline
The same event, priced across deadline contracts on this venue.
- By Sep 3052.0%
- By Dec 31 (this market)68.0%
Extending the deadline from Sep 30 to Dec 31 adds about 16.0 percentage points of implied probability.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±19 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Choppy / mean-reverting91%
- Stable consensus3%
- Thin-liquidity spike2%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Trading normally.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
$41.6K
Liquidity
$38K
Total volume
$59.6K
- Category
- AI / Tech
- Venue
- Polymarket
- Open interest
- —
- Spread
- 2.0 pts
- Best bid
- 67.0%
- Best ask
- 69.0%
- 7-day range
- 61.0% – 70.5%
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026