Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
2K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
50 mana
Total volume
10.2K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will the Ban Superintelligence Act pass by the end of 2027?
As of Oct 19, 2026, 1:00 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 17.9% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 50 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 2K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
17.9%
Little changed over 24 hours
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, with broad trading across many accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
Broad participation
29%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
40
Trades
112
over 45 days
Largest order
1K mana
10.2K mana traded across these 112 trades (last 45 days).
Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one trader.
Recent trade activity$10.2K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Bernie Sanders and Greg Casar have announced plans to introduce a bill banning the development of artificial superintelligence and pausing AI development until a federal regulatory body has been set up. This will resolve YES if some version of their bill is singed into law before EOY 2027, and will also resolve YES if an equivalent bill is signed into law.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Bernie Sanders and Greg Casar have announced plans to introduce a bill banning the development of artificial superintelligence and pausing AI development until a federal regulatory body has been set up. This will resolve YES if some version of their bill is singed into law before EOY 2027, and will also resolve YES if an equivalent bill is signed into law. It will fail at EOY 2027 if no bill has been signed into law that bans development of ASI. Update 2026-09-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): An equivalent bill is defined by the following: It does not need to include specific penalties like 20-year prison sentences or a corporate death penalty. It must make an earnest effort at banning all development of superintelligence by United States companies.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2027 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 19, 1:05 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±16 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
low classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
19Low
Where the price path tends to go next596 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~1w
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H-0.324H-0.37D-0.3