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Wednesday, August 26, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved down 14.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 1.6 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 5.9 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Little 24h change — the price looks settled and reliable.
Moved down 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved up 35.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 22.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 30.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (27 in 24h)
- Will Captain Sauce upload a video this week?Manifoldyes
- Will Bitcoin be higher 7 days from now?Manifoldyes
- Does Ox Alpha belong to Zhipu AI (Z.ai)?Polymarketyes
- S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 26?Polymarketno
- 📈 Will Nvidia report Q2 FY2027 revenue above $92 billion?Manifoldyes
- Will Daniel Lord livestream between Aug 24 and September 1st in 2026?Manifoldyes
- Does Ox Alpha belong to Google?Polymarketno
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?Polymarketyes
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.