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Wednesday, August 26, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved up 11.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 11.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 11.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved up 26.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 39.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 1.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (35 in 24h)
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