ManifoldPlay moneyOtherUpdated 30d ago

Will Daniel Lord livestream between Aug 28 and September 11 in 2026?

Last traded probability
83.4%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Price historyManifold

Not enough price history for this range yet.

Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)

Awaiting resolution

The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Last probability before deadline
83.4%
Event deadline
September 11, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
Venue status
closed

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will Daniel Lord livestream between Aug 28 and September 11 in 2026? The last traded Manifold probability before the deadline was 83.4%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Market data as of
September 11, 2026 at 10:04 PM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
October 11, 2026 at 5:31 PM ET
Source
Manifold
Event deadline
September 11, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
Market status
Awaiting resolution
Data updated
30d ago

What this market actually measures

Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Daniel Lord initiates at least one livestream on his main YouTube channel "Hiding in my room" (or any alternative channel verified to be his) between August 28, 2026 (00:00 UTC) and September 11, 2026 (23:59 UTC). Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Daniel Lord initiates at least one livestream on his main YouTube channel "Hiding in my room" (or any alternative channel verified to be his) between August 28, 2026 (00:00 UTC) and September 11, 2026 (23:59 UTC). Otherwise, this market resolves to NO. Verification sources: Primary YouTube Channel: Hiding in my room (or any active channel he redirects to). Subreddits: r/HIMRFAM2 and r/HIMRFAM. Unofficial Discord servers: HIMR Discord (where Daniel participates under the username notdaniel0594_05557) and Uncensored Discord. Instagram: @danielhimr. Edge cases: If a livestream begins, it counts even if it is subsequently deleted, privated, or cut short due to technical issues, provided there is credible community evidence (e.g., screenshots, chat logs, Reddit posts, or Discord updates) confirming it occurred. Background Daniel Lord (HIMR) recently returned to YouTube after a period of absence. After deleting or privating much of his previous content due to personal and relationship disruptions, his return has been tracked by his community on the new active subreddit r/HIMRFAM2 (as the original r/HIMRFAM has restricted posting). Daniel is currently active on community Discord servers and Instagram, and has recently been discussing his new "car living" setups in his Tesla Model Y. This market tracks whether his return to content creation will include a live broadcast during the specified window. A community wiki has been created to provide comprehensive documentation around Daniel's life and character.

Market data

24h volume

0 mana

Liquidity

100 mana

Total volume

141.5 mana

Category
Other
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
—
Current probability
83.4%
Resolves
Sep 11, 2026

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