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Sunday, August 23, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved up 24.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 19.3 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 13.4 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 6.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved down 30.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 27.1 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 24.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (28 in 24h)
- Ethereum price at Aug 23, 2026 at 12am EDT?Kalshino
- Will Daniel Lord upload a new YouTube video before September 1, 2026?Manifoldyes
- NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Polymarketyes
- Will SPY close above $776.34 on Friday, August 21, 2026?Manifoldno
- Will Daniel livestream before September 1, 2026Manifoldyes
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.