ProbCastOdds Reliability

Daily archive · times in ET · all days

Sunday, August 23, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?

Moved up 1.3 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+1.356%Confirmed move
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?

Moved down 10.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-10.013%Confirmed move
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026?

Moved down 9.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-9.516%Confirmed move
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?

Moved up 3.7 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+3.736%Confirmed move
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?

Moved down 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-4.013%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Bitcoin Up or Down on August 24?

Moved down 10.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-10.046%Likely noise
Will LegalEagle become the U.S. Attorney General before 2030?

Moved down 41.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-41.74%Likely noise
Will Levent's proof that S^2 admits a complex structure hold up?

Moved up 41.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+41.090%Likely noise

Settled (36 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.

Prediction Markets Daily Read — Sunday, August 23, 2026 | ProbCast