Will The Odyssey (2026) be Christopher Nolan's highest grossing film at the domestic box office?
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 94.1%.
- Final market price
- 94.1%
- Event deadline
- December 31, 2027 at 6:59 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 94.1%
- Probability seven days before event deadline
- 94.1%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will The Odyssey (2026) be Christopher Nolan's highest grossing film at the domestic box office? The final Manifold price was 94.1%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 94.1%.
- Market data as of
- August 23, 2026 at 10:19 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 7, 2026 at 5:32 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- December 31, 2027 at 6:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 44d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if Christopher Nolan's film The Odyssey (2026) becomes his highest-grossing film of all time at the domestic (North American) box office (unadjusted for inflation) by the end of its initial theatrical run. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if Christopher Nolan's film The Odyssey (2026) becomes his highest-grossing film of all time at the domestic (North American) box office (unadjusted for inflation) by the end of its initial theatrical run. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO. The benchmark to beat is $534,987,076, which is the lifetime domestic box office gross of The Dark Knight (2008). Resolution Details: Source of Truth: The lifetime domestic gross of The Odyssey and The Dark Knight as recorded on Box Office Mojo. If Box Office Mojo is unavailable, The Numbers will be used as the primary alternative. Inflation: Figures will not be adjusted for inflation. Re-releases: Any domestic earnings from re-releases of The Odyssey prior to January 1, 2027, will count toward its total. Any re-releases of The Dark Knight occurring after August 1, 2026, will not be factored into its benchmark total of $534,987,076. Resolution Date: This market will resolve once The Odyssey has completed its initial domestic theatrical run (i.e., when it is no longer listed in active weekly domestic box office reports on Box Office Mojo), or on January 1, 2027, whichever comes first. Background Christopher Nolan's mythic action epic The Odyssey was released in theaters on July 17, 2026. Within its first two weeks, the film smashed multiple box office records, surpassing the entire domestic gross of Nolan's Oscar-winning Oppenheimer ($330 million) in just 13 days. As of early August 2026, The Odyssey is performing exceptionally well, with box office analysts projecting a final domestic run between $540 million and $600 million. If it meets these projections, it will eclipse The Dark Knight ($534.9M) to become the highest-grossing domestic release of Nolan's career.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ0
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ323.6
- Category
- Uncategorized
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 94.1%
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2027