As of Oct 25, 2026, 1:13 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 8.0% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 1K mana of pool liquidity.
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — the venue's feed doesn't report liquidity for this market, traded by a small group of accounts.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
0 mana
Total volume
5.1K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
9
Trades
17
over 9 days
Largest order
1K mana
5.1K mana traded across these 17 trades (last 9 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Devin James Stone (popularly known as "LegalEagle") is officially sworn in or appointed as the Attorney General of the United States on or before December 31, 2029, at 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Devin James Stone (popularly known as "LegalEagle") is officially sworn in or appointed as the Attorney General of the United States on or before December 31, 2029, at 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO. Key Rules: Serving as "Acting" Attorney General does not suffice for a YES resolution; he must be officially confirmed by the United States Senate or appointed through a formal recess appointment as the permanent Attorney General. The official registry of U.S. Attorneys General on the U.S. Department of Justice website or announcements on the Federal Register will serve as the primary source of truth. Background Devin James Stone is an American trial lawyer, founder of Stone Law DC, and creator of the popular YouTube channel LegalEagle, which offers legal education, commentary, and analysis of current events. The Attorney General of the United States is the chief law enforcement officer of the federal government and leads the Department of Justice. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 25, 4:37 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±24 pts.
The price hasn't updated recently and volume is light, so it may not yet reflect the latest information. Treat the latest print as possibly lagging, not settled.
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.