Daily archive · times in ET · all days
Saturday, August 15, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved down 8.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Little 24h change — the price looks settled and reliable.
Moved up 1.3 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved up 36.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 43.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 28.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (38 in 24h)
- Will an AI company be valued at $1 trillion+ before January 1, 2027?Manifoldyes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?Polymarketno
- S&P 500 closes above $7,800 at end of week?Manifoldno
- A National Mp publicly says Chris Luxon should go before end of Friday?Manifoldno
- Ethereum Up or Down on August 14?Polymarketyes
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.