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Saturday, August 15, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved up 1.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 1.3 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Little 24h change — the price looks settled and reliable.
Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved up 36.2 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 30.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 52.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (44 in 24h)
- Ethereum price at Aug 15, 2026 at 10pm EDT?Kalshino
- Will something happen this week in AI (by 5pm EST August 14)?Manifoldno
- Will a new prize drawing be opened before end of August?Manifoldyes
- Will Gemini 3.7 Flash be released by the end of August 2026?Manifoldyes
- Will DeepSeek V4 Pro GA be better than GPT-5.6 Sol?Manifoldno
- S&P 500 closes above $7,800 on August 14?Manifoldno
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?Polymarketyes
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?Polymarketno
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.